Pretreatment nomogram for predicting freedom from recurrence after permanent prostate brachytherapy in prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVES To develop a prognostic nomogram to predict the freedom from recurrence for patients treated with permanent prostate brachytherapy for localized prostate cancer. METHODS We performed a retrospective analysis of 920 patients treated with permanent prostate brachytherapy between 1992 and 2000. The clinical parameters included clinical stage, biopsy Gleason sum, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) value, and administration of external beam radiation. Patients who received neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy were excluded. Failure was defined as any post-treatment administration of androgen deprivation, clinical relapse, or biochemical failure, defined as three PSA rises. Patients with fewer than three PSA rises were censored at the time of the first PSA rise. Data from two outside institutions served as validation. RESULTS A nomogram that predicts the probability of remaining free from biochemical recurrence for 5 years after brachytherapy without adjuvant hormonal therapy was developed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. External validation revealed a concordance index of 0.61 to 0.64, and calibration of the nomogram suggested confidence limits of +5% to -30%. CONCLUSIONS The pretreatment nomogram we developed may be useful to physicians and patients in estimating the probability of successful treatment 5 years after brachytherapy for clinically localized prostate cancer.